Maritime satellite communication will more than double in 10 years

The maritime satellite communications market recorded significant growth last year, driven mainly by Starlink’s entry into the market. In addition, according to the latest report by Novaspace, a consulting and market intelligence company in the space sector, the market share of non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) solutions as the main method of maritime communication is expected to grow from 20% in 2023 to 90% by 2033.

The study also shows that the total number of vessels using at least one satellite communication service during 2023 was 40,600. This number is expected to more than double in 10 years, reaching around 90,000 vessels by 2033.

Although they have been cautious and decided not to rely solely on NGSO connectivity solutions, large vessel operators are increasingly adopting a hybrid approach, using Geostationary Orbit (GEO) solutions as a complement to NGSO services, the Novaspace study highlights. The strategy temporarily increased operators’ budgets for satellites in 2023, but the figures should normalize as the cost of ownership of satellite solutions decreases.

Another revelation from the survey is that bandwidth utilization doubled last year, mainly due to the entry of Starlink. It is forecast to grow exponentially from 138 Gbps in 2023 to 1.7 Tbps in 2033 (a 13-fold increase). Dependence on GEO systems as the main means of communication will decrease as vessels transition to NGSO solutions capable of meeting primary bandwidth demands. Consequently, the market share of NGSO systems is expected to increase from 66% in 2023 to 96% in 2033.

According to Novaspace, the new generation of NGSO systems will put pressure on the current ecosystem, leading to falling prices and increasing capacity supply. Operator revenues are expected to grow from just under $620 million in 2023 to around $1.14 billion in 2033, with a compound annual growth rate of 6% over the decade.

In addition, revenue from services offered to the maritime market is expected to increase from $1.8 billion in 2023 to $3 billion in 2033. The growth will be attributed to the increasing number of VSAT-equipped vessels and higher average revenue per user (ARPU) in certain subverticals. The market share of service revenue generated by NGSO solutions is expected to increase from 17% in 2023 to 87% in 2033.

LEO Communication

  The shipping industry is increasingly adopting satellite communication systems, in particular low earth orbit (LEO) technologies such as SpaceX’s Starlink. According to a survey of 73 shipowners carried out by Thetius, a consultancy that helps the maritime sector make technological decisions, 43% of respondents plan to implement this type of communication in the next 12 months. According to the study, there are already 7,000 ships equipped with LEO connectivity features.

The growing demand is the result of the significant increase in the use of data in maritime transport. According to figures from the Inmarsat survey cited in the Thetius study, there was a 207% and 146% growth in the container and bulk segments between 2021 and 2022.

The Maritime Executive website cites examples of how LEO connectivity is expected to impact the shipping industry in various ways. With advanced communication capabilities, it will be possible to exploit various aspects of advanced digitalization and technologies such as Artificial Intelligence to make fleets smarter and make more data-driven strategic decisions.

AI and computer vision systems will be able to help vessels navigate, monitor weather conditions and help the crew make decisions to ensure safe and efficient navigation. Internet of Things (IoT) sensors will be able to constantly monitor the marine environment and help reduce fuel consumption and emissions, avoiding speed drops and unnecessary maneuvers.

Sensors can also help with predictive maintenance, making it possible to analyze data and better predict equipment failures, reducing downtime. The Optimal Route report by Thetius estimates that reducing unplanned downtime by monitoring conditions of use can increase margins by up to 50%.